📊 Summary

Nowcast Window: 60 days
Forecast Horizon: 20 business days
Data through: 2026-04-02

Pair	Actual	Model Fair Value	MAPE (60d)	Gap	Signal	Notes
EUR_USD	1.1525	1.1588	0.260%	+0.543%	🔴 OVERVALUED	Model is accurate (MAPE 0.260%); price above model estimate — possible downside. T+1 expects fall (0.119%).
EUR_GBP	0.8725	0.8711	0.127%	-0.165%	🔵 UNDERVALUED	Model is accurate (MAPE 0.127%); price below model estimate — possible upside. T+1 expects fall (0.007%).
EUR_SEK	10.9480	10.9227	0.321%	-0.231%	🔵 UNDERVALUED	Model is moderate (MAPE 0.321%); price below model estimate — possible upside. T+1 expects rise (0.309%).
GBP_USD	1.3209	1.3291	0.318%	+0.626%	🔴 OVERVALUED	Model is moderate (MAPE 0.318%); price above model estimate — possible downside. T+1 expects fall (0.232%).
SEK_USD	0.1053	0.1061	0.510%	+0.820%	🔴 OVERVALUED	Model is moderate (MAPE 0.510%); price above model estimate — possible downside. T+1 expects fall (0.426%).
GBP_SEK	12.5474	12.5153	0.295%	-0.256%	🔵 UNDERVALUED	Model is accurate (MAPE 0.295%); price below model estimate — possible upside. T+1 expects rise (0.146%).

Pair	T+1	T+5	T+10	T+20	Conf T+1	Conf T+5	Conf T+10	Conf T+20	Avg Conf
EUR_USD	1.1511	1.1514	1.1489	1.1488	67.5%	62.4%	55.8%	51.9%	57.5%
EUR_GBP	0.8725	0.8725	0.8685	0.8707	63.7%	60.3%	54.3%	54.2%	59.8%
EUR_SEK	10.9819	10.9109	10.9592	10.9780	57.7%	64.3%	61.9%	56.1%	60.0%
GBP_USD	1.3178	1.3227	1.3178	1.3183	62.3%	67.2%	60.4%	50.0%	64.0%
SEK_USD	0.1048	0.1050	0.1049	0.1053	60.4%	64.9%	53.5%	60.2%	60.0%
GBP_SEK	12.5657	12.5281	12.5261	12.5126	56.8%	58.7%	58.6%	52.6%	57.5%

Go back to Blog Post... Feel free to connect with me on LinkedIn to continue the conversation.